TY - JOUR AU - Jarle Aarstad, AU - Olav Andreas Kvitastein, PY - 2023/03/13 Y2 - 2024/03/28 TI - Is There a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality? JF - Asian Pacific Journal of Health Sciences JA - APJHS VL - 10 IS - 1 SE - Articles DO - 10.21276/apjhs.2023.10.1.6 UR - https://www.apjhs.com/index.php/apjhs/article/view/3017 SP - 25-31 AB - <p>Purpose: We primarily study a possible link between 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe and monthly 2022 excess all-cause mortality, that is, mortality higher than before the pandemic. Methods and Results: Analyses of 31 countries weighted by population size show that all-cause mortality during the first 9 months of 2022 increased more the higher the 2021 vaccination uptake; a one percentage point increase in 2021 vaccination uptake was associated with a monthly mortality increase in 2022 by 0.105% (95% CI, 0.075–0.134). When controlling for alternative explanations, the association remained robust, and we discuss the result emphasizing causality as well as potential ecological fallacy. Furthermore, the study shows that 2021 all-cause mortality was lower the higher the vaccination uptake, but this association became non-significant when controlling for alternative explanations. Conclusion: Despite a possible preventive effect in 2021, we cannot rule out that COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Europe has led to increasing 2022 all-cause mortality between January and September.</p> ER -